Is the United States Getting Dumber?

It is circulating that the state of America’s education is in shambles. Headlines such as “Academic decline demands education reform” from the Washington Examiner and “A looming ‘demographic cliff’: Fewer college students and ultimately fewer graduates” from NPR suggests that the nation’s quality of education is not up to par. Statistics about literacy rates, test scores and enrollment numbers can be misleading, leaving the public confused about where the United States stands. How is education actually doing?

Claims that test scores have fallen to historical lows are not entirely unfounded. Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, or the “Nation’s Report Card,” revealed that math and reading scores for students in the United States have declined recently. In 2022, average math scores for nine-year-olds fell seven points and fell five points in reading scores, as compared to 2020. The recorded drop was the largest decline since assessments began tracking trends. Learning disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, where schools went into remote learning across the country, has been suggested as the reason for the change.

More recent NAEP data shows that some students recovered, but performance levels are below pre-pandemic benchmarks in multiple grade levels. The drop is not the same across the board, either. Previously low performing students had the largest declines, which widens existing achievement gaps between high and low income districts. These statistics are evidence that American schools are failing to teach students basic academic skills, according to critics of the education system.

Test scores cannot tell the entire story, however. Other indicators point to a different conclusion. The National Center for Education Statistics says the national public high school graduation rate reached about 87%, a record high in comparison to previous decades. This means more students are completing high school than in the past, and suggests that the system is still capable of moving students through a basic education.

Higher education is also a complex picture. Since its peak in 2010, college enrollment in the United States has now declined. Data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows that total undergraduate enrollment has fallen by millions over the past decade. Some analysts interpret this as a warning sign for future workforce and the nation’s economic competitiveness.

The decline in enrollment does not necessarily mean that education is deteriorating. Demographic shifts play a huge role. Following the Great Recession in 2008, birth rates in the United States dropped, resulting in a smaller college-age population today. The phenomenon, referred to as “demographic cliff,” means that colleges are drawing from a smaller pool of potential students regardless of educational quality. Fewer students enrolling does not automatically mean fewer students capable of attending.

Adult literacy rates additionally are a concern. The National Center for Education Statistics estimates that one in five American adults performs at or below literacy proficiency. Individuals at this level may struggle with tasks like understanding written instructions or comparing information in texts. The argument is these figures demonstrate a long-standing failure of the educational system to produce fully-literate graduates. Critics question the value of an education if it does not make its people capable.

At the same time, literacy rates are impacted by factors outside the classroom. Immigration patterns, socioeconomic inequality and differences in access to educational resources all influence literacy outcomes. Adults who completed part of their education outside the United States can be included in the national literacy surveys, which can affect the results. Also, literacy today includes digital skills that traditional reading assessments do not fully measure.

The pandemic also created an unprecedented disruption to the education system. More than 50 million public school students experienced school closures, shifting learning environments and uneven access to technology. These conditions affected academic performance across the country. Comparing pandemic-era test scores to earlier years may exaggerate the appearance of decline.

Taken together, the evidence can show that American education is neither entirely failing nor entirely thriving. Test scores have declined in the short term, particularly after the pandemic, and literacy challenges remain for many adults. At the same time, high school graduation rates are historically high, and some declines in college enrollment can be explained by demographic changes rather than academic deterioration.

The state of education in the United States may be less about collapse and more about transition. The data reflects a system facing new pressures, including technological change, shifting demographics and the long-term effects of the pandemic. At the same time, many of the structures that have historically moved students through the system remain intact. Whether those structures will adapt successfully is still an open question.