An Educated Guess for the 2024 Election

From a Non Poly-Sci Student

With the 2022 midterms in the back of my mind I can’t help but reflect on the elections past, what we have learned from this election, and what the next one will have in store for us. With Trump recently announcing his intention to run in the next election, shocker, it’s got me thinking. After taking some time to consider current events, here is what’s I predict is going to happen. 

Republican Primaries

Both Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis are going to run into the republican primaries. It will be a bitter race and ultimately, DeSantis will end up taking the cake and will be the republican party’s presidential candidate. 

Why do I think this? That’s because the midterms were incredibly telling. Most Trump-backed candidates didn’t do very well in the most recent election. Most moderates are getting tired of hearing about election fraud, myself included. The Senate is democratic and the house has gone to the GOP. 

Ron DeSantis is still a full-blooded republican but has less baggage than Trump. He seems to be overall a better politician and a safer choice that moderates may feel more comfortable voting for. Therefore, he will be chosen as the presidential candidate. 

I also am going to predict that Trump’s election fraud claims will not end with the 2020 election. Instead of taking this loss with stride, he will again claim fraud and run as a third-party candidate. 

As a result, the republican vote will split and the democratic candidate will win regardless of who ends up running. 

Democratic Candidates

 The real mystery of the 2024 election is who will be the democratic candidate. Typically, the incumbent president will run for a second term and typically they win. However, Biden has one glaring problem. He’s old. 

Biden is now 80 years old and is the oldest president to have ever served. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kamala Harris isn’t secretly a little sad that Biden is still kicking it. 

In addition to his age, Americans don’t want him to run. In a poll conducted by CNN, which is widely regarded as a democratic news network, 75% of Democratic voters do not want Biden to run in 2024. While not a democratic voter, I can agree that I don’t much care for Biden’s presidency. While he has announced that he has intentions to run again in 2024, I wouldn’t be surprised if he changes his mind and retires. 

In short, I don’t think he will be a democratic candidate. 

So who will run?

I think Kamala Harris is a possible option. I have also heard rumbling about the possibility of Stacy Abrahms running which may change since she lost her 2022 election for governor. 

These are just guesses though and since the Democratic Party’s machinations don’t make their way into the news too often it’s harder for me to make predictions. 


In conclusion, we have all learned the lesson that a lot can happed in two years in this country. The way that this country looked in 2020 compared to the way this country looked at the beginning of this year, the differences feel night and day. the Republican party is likely to remain divided in the upcoming election. Ron DeSantis is more likely at this moment in time to win the primaries but it won’t ultimately matter. The democratic candidate, whoever they may be, will be the next president of the United States. Who knows? Maybe we will have our first female president. 

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