One of Donald Trump’s biggest and boldest promises throughout his 2024 campaign was that he would resolve conflict in the Middle East, specifically the war between Israel and Hamas, and that under his presidency, the United States would ensure peace through strength all throughout the world. This is of course a huge promise to live up to and many Americans are doubtful that Trump and his team will be able to do this, while others are confident in his military and diplomatic strategies. So, what has happened so far and what is coming up in the future?
There is a long and complicated history surrounding the current land dispute between the Israelis and the Palestinians. It is absolutely impossible to adequately and fairly explain the conflict in this article but a brief refresher is in order. The current conflict between Israel and Hamas stems from a Hamas terrorist attack against Israel. On Oct. 7th 2023, in a coordinated attack, Hamas terrorists killed 1,200 Israelis and took 251 to Gaza as hostages. Israel responded to this attack swiftly and severely. The exact number of Palestinian deaths is unknown but is estimated to be around 47,000. Israel has faced both criticism and support of their military response.
In early January, before taking office, Trump made it clear that he expected the conflict between Israel and Hamas to end and for the hostages in Gaza to be returned before he entered office he was quoted saying that if this conflict was not resolved that “all hell will break out in the Middle East.” He warned that U.S. intervention would not be good for Hamas or Israel and that it would be in all parties’ best interests to reach a peace deal.
A little over a week later, a ceasefire was announced, with some believing that it was Trump’s stern warning that prompted the peace deal and others believed that the deal came about due to work by the Biden administration. Regardless, after fifteen months of fighting it looked as though an agreement could finally be reached.
The ceasefire consists of several phases during which Israeli hostages will be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. During the first six-week phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. What happens in the next two phases is not completely clear. Phase two is supposed to include mediated negotiations between both sides to end the war completely. As more hostages are released, Israel will slowly withdraw from Gaza. Israeli officials have stated, however, that they will not fully withdraw from the area until every hostage is returned, while Hamas has stated that they will not release the hostages until Israeli troops vacate the area. The stubbornness of both sides has the potential develop into a bitter stalemate. Phase three consists of the return of the bodies of Israeli hostages and the reconstruction of Gaza.
The peace deal between Israel and Hamas is fragile at best and both sides have already accused the other of not holding up their end of the bargain. Despite the shakiness of the agreement, hostage exchanges have been taking place according to plan. Some have speculated that this ceasefire will not hold and that one side or the other will violate its terms resulting in a return to violence in the region. The deterioration of this deal is a real possibility, but hopefully the intense focus of the international community will be enough to keep both sides accountable.
This long awaited ceasefire is absolutely something to be excited about, but many questions remain, one of them being: What happens to the Gaza Strip now?
President Trump has proposed that the U.S. take possession of the Gaza Strip. Trump said that the U.S. would be responsible for dismantling all unexploded bombs in the area and clearing out weapons and debris. He also proposed that the U.S. would seek to develop the area by providing ample jobs and housing. This ambitious plan would require that all of the Palestinians be moved out of the area and into neighboring countries. The problem for Trump is that these countries have not yet agreed to take Palestinians in as refugees. Cooperation from neighboring countries will be absolutely essential for Trump if he truly wishes to see this plan through. It is also not entirely clear whether this plan would allow Palestinians to eventually return to Gaza.
There have been varying amounts of support for Trump’s far-fetched plan. Some Republicans are opposed, believing that a takeover of the Gaza Strip is not in the U.S.’s best interest while others believe that a creative plan is essential to establish sustainable peace in the region. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that he believes that Trump is simply trying to get a reaction from the public. President of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for Trump’s plan while other Israeli officials have deemed the plan to be impractical. There is also the issue of international law; some scholars have stated that Trump’s plan could be considered ethnic cleansing and a war crime if he does not allow Palestinians to return to the area.
So will a United States takeover of the Gaza Strip actually take place? It is impossible to say. There are a lot of moving pieces surrounding a plan like this one and it seems unlikely that they will all fall into place. What is most important is that discussions surrounding peace are actually happening, which is something that would have seemed impossible a few short months ago. All anyone can do is hope that things continue to move in a positive direction and that interference from the U.S. or any other country does not get in the way of progress.