Meteorological winter ends Feb. 29. The season is measured in December, January and February.
The winter has been mild despite what some days have felt like.
Daryl Ritchison, assistant state climatologist, said we could “finish above average” and that “Fargo is running 6 degrees above average.” Winter meteorology is defined as December through February, with spring starting on March 1. Astronomically speaking, spring begins on the vernal equinox on March 20.
The Weather Channel reported Fargo runs an average high of 22, 18 and 24 degrees Fahrenheit through December, January and February, respectively. Ritchison said there will lots of ups and downs temperature-wise in the next couple weeks.
However, the ups should outweigh the downs and the highs will be more noticeable, he said. Historically speaking, this will be a significant winter and will end up in the top 20 warmest winters and possibly may in the top 10, Ritchison said.
El Niño is a weather pattern that comes around every couple of years and is the warming of the Pacific Ocean’s water. Trade winds then carry the warmth over the upper part of the United States. Ritchison said that El Niño in 2010-11 did not provide as mild of a winter as this past one.
He said two-thirds of El Niños will provide an above average winter.
As for precipitation, it should be pretty close to average precipitation.
Richison said the only way for a flood is if there’s lots of rain in May and April, or a large snowstorm in the next couple weeks. Something drastic would have to happen for there to be strong flooding.
It also looks promising for the second straight spring that flooding will be minimal in the Fargo-Moorhead area, Ritchison said.
However, Ritchison said predicting events that involve precipitation is the trickiest because all it could take is one heavy rainfall and the predictions are wrong.
This will be one of the warmer and best winters that we will get, Ritchison said. Worst case possible, he said, is that we will only finish 4 to 5 degrees above average rather than the predicted 6 to 7 degrees above average.
Spring may arrive early this year, and Ritchison said he doesn’t think that people will complain too much about an early spring.