There are two weeks left in the FCS regular season, and for #1 North Dakota State, the path to the #1 overall seed and not leaving the Fargodome until Frisco is simple. All NDSU has to do is win their final two games: beat Missouri State at home and win a riveting regular-season finale at South Dakota.
The rest of the 24-team field has some answers, but there are still plenty of questions about who the top eight will be and who will host a first-round game. Spectrum sports writer Ethan Ibach and I decided to give it a shot as we play a little “FCS Bracketology” to predict the field of 24 for the 2024 FCS playoffs.
This is strictly our opinion on the FCS playoffs and the teams we think will be in the bracket, so take it as you wish. This is just our projections on the rest of the season, these are no way final with two weeks remaining in the regular season so these numbers will change.
Seeds: 1-8 gets a first-round bye, 9-16 will host a first-round game
- North Dakota State
- Montana State
- South Dakota State
- UC Davis
- Mercer
- Idaho
- Incarnate Word
- South Dakota
- Tarleton State
- Richmond
- Villanova
- Southeast Missouri State
- Illinois State
- Chattanooga
- Rhode Island
- Montana
Automatic Qualifiers: Won their conference championship
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South-OVC: Southeast Missouri State
Coastal Athletic Association: Rhode Island
Missouri Valley Football Conference: North Dakota State
Northeast Conference: Duquesne
Patriot League: Holy Cross
Pioneer Football League: Drake
Southern Conference: Mercer
Southland Conference: Incarnate Word
United Athletic Conference: Tarleton State
At-Large Bids:
South Dakota State (#3 seed)
UC Davis (#4 seed)
Idaho (#6 seed)
South Dakota (#8 seed)
Richmond (#10 seed)
Villanova (#11 seed)
Illinois State (#13 seed)
Chattanooga (#14 seed)
Montana (#16 seed)
Eastern Kentucky
Abilene Christian
Stony Brook
East Tennessee State
Northern Arizona
Résumés for seeds/At-Large bids: Each team’s final record is a prediction based each team’s remaining schedule
*Massey SOS=Strength of Schedule rating
#1 North Dakota State: 11-1 (8-0), 10-0 vs. FCS, 4 ranked wins (South Dakota State, South Dakota, Illinois State, and Missouri State), loss to FBS Colorado, Massey SOS: 8th
#2 Montana State: 12-0 (8-0), 11-0 vs. FCS, 3 ranked wins (UC Davis, Idaho, Montana), FBS win New Mexico, Massey SOS: 38th
#3 South Dakota State: 10-2 (7-1), 9-1 vs. FCS, 3 ranked wins (Incarnate Word, South Dakota, and Missouri State), Division II win over Augustana, Losses to North Dakota State and FBS Oklahoma State, Massey SOS: 3rd
#4 UC Davis: 10-2 (7-1), 10-1 vs. FCS, 2 ranked wins (Idaho, Montana), Losses to Montana State, FBS California, Massey SOS: 25th
#5 Mercer: 10-2 (7-1), 10-1 vs. FCS, 2 ranked wins (Chattanooga, East Tennessee State), Losses to Samford and FBS Alabama, Massey SOS: 85th
#6 Idaho: 9-3 (6-2), 8-2 vs. FCS, 2 ranked wins (Abilene Christian, Northern Arizona), FBS win Wyoming, Losses to UC Davis, Montana State, and FBS #1 Oregon, Massey SOS: 5th
#7 Incarnate Word: 10-2 (8-0), 10-2 vs. FCS, 1 ranked win (Northern Arizona), Massey SOS: 52nd, Losses to South Dakota State and Southern Illinois
#8 South Dakota: 8-3 (6-2), 8-2 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, division II win Northern State, game canceled (Portland State), Losses to FBS Wisconsin, South Dakota State, and North Dakota State, Massey SOS: 14th
#9 Tarleton State: 10-2 (7-1), 10-1 vs. FCS, 2 ranked wins (Abilene Christian and Central Arkansas), Losses to unranked Eastern Kentucky, FBS Baylor, Massey SOS: 49th
#10 Richmond: 10-2 (7-1) 10-1 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Losses to FBS Virginia and Wofford, Massey SOS: 70th
#11 Villanova: 10-2 (7-1), 10-1 vs. FCS, 1 ranked win (Stony Brook), Losses to Maine, FBS Maryland, Massey SOS: 64th
#12 Southeast Missouri: 10-2 (8-1), 10-1 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, losses to FBS New Mexico State and Lindenwood, Massey SOS: 73th
#13 Illinois State: 9-3 (6-2), 9-2 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Loss to FBS Iowa, FCS losses to North Dakota State and Missouri State, Massey SOS: 15th
#14 Chattanooga: 8-4 (6-2), 8-2 vs. FCS, 1 ranked win (East Tennessee State), Losses to FBS Tennessee, FBS Georgia State, Western Carolina, East Tennessee State, Massey SOS: 27th
#15 Rhode Island: 10-2 (7-1), 10-1 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Losses to FBS Minnesota and Delaware, Massey SOS: 39th
#16 Montana: 8-4 (5-3), 8-4 vs. FCS, 1 ranked win (Northern Arizona), Losses to North Dakota, Weber State, UC Davis, and Montana State, Massey SOS: 29th
Non Seeds
Eastern Kentucky: 8-4 (6-2), 7-2 vs. FCS, 1 ranked win (Central Arkansas), Losses to FBS Mississippi State, FBS Western Kentucky, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian, Massey SOS: 43rd
Abilene Christian: 8-4 (6-2), 8-3 vs. FCS, 1 ranked win (Central Arkansas), Losses to FBS Texas Tech, Tarleton State, North Alabama, Idaho, Massey SOS: 34th
Stony Brook: 10-2 (7-1),10-1 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Losses to FBS Marshall, Villanova, Massey SOS: 59th
East Tennessee State: 8-4 (6-2), 7-3 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Losses to FBS Appalachian State, North Dakota State, Mercer, and Chattanooga, Massey SOS: 29th
Northern Arizona: 8-4 (5-3), 7-3 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Losses to FBS Arizona, Incarnate Word, Idaho, and Montana, Massey SOS: 22nd
Holy Cross: Automatic bid (Patriot),7-5 (6-0), 7-4 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, Losses to FBS Syracuse, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Yale, Harvard, and Lafayette, Massey SOS: 48th
Duquesne: Automatic bid (Northeast), 9-2 (6-0), 8-0 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, losses to FBS Toledo and FBS Boston College, Massey SOS: 99th
Drake: Automatic bid (Pioneer), 9-1 (8-0), 9-1 vs. FCS, 0 ranked wins, loss to South Dakota, Massey SOS: 114th