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Handicapping the Midseason Heisman Field

The Heisman Trophy has long been fodder for scrutiny and discussion. Week 1 stars instantly become trophy contenders, but seldom does it stay that way. With the season at the halfway point, the field can be more rationally assessed, as the true candidates have manifested themselves.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, QB

Tua Tagovailoa has made it clear: his meteoric rise from second-stringer to title-game hero wasn’t a flash in the pan. Tagovailoa pulled the rug out from underneath Jalen Hurts, assuming the role of starter in 2018.

The Hawaiian has been on point this season, completing passes at a 71.5 percent rate, fourth-best in the nation and without a single interception. His marquee performance came against Texas A&M when the sophomore completed 22 of 30 passes for 387 yards and 4 touchdowns.

He’s as accurate of a passer as there is in the FBS, so much so that completion percentages of 54.5 and 68.4 are his two lowest marks in an individual game.

Topping it off, Tagovailoa has been explosive as well, leading the country with 14.3 yards per completion.

Midway through the season, it’s his award to lose. A top-shelf performance on Nov. 3 in Baton Rouge against current No. 5 LSU could inevitably seal the award for Tagovailoa.

Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State, QB

Breathing down Tagovailoa’s neck is Buckeye signal-caller Dwayne Haskins. Like Tagovailoa, Haskins ascended out of nowhere.

Statistically, the sophomore casts a similar profile as well. He ranks third in the FBS in both completion percentage and passing yards.

Haskins already has two signature performances, gashing both Indiana and Minnesota for over 400 yards in consecutive contests. He leads the country in touchdowns, tossing 28 scores. Thus far, his toughest opponents have been TCU and Penn State, games in which he excelled.

He’s a poor man’s Tagovailoa if said poor man is Warren Buffett. To cement his bona-fides and steal the award from his Alabama counterpart, he will need a sensational performance against Michigan, who have the best defense in the Big Ten.

Will Grier, West Virginia, QB

A tier below Tagovailoa and Haskins sits Will Grier. At the helm of Dana Holgorsen’s air raid offense, Grier is as exciting of a player as there is in the FBS.

The senior ranks in the top 10 in nearly every major category. On paper, it’s impossible to distinguish between Grier and the duo ahead of him, but a further examination clouds his case.

Even after a ghastly trap-game loss to Iowa State, the Mountaineers (6-1, 2-1 Big 12) still control their own destiny. That being said, the loss was hands down Grier’s worst performance of the season, damaging his case. Grier only threw for 100 yards in the outing to go along with a touchdown and an interception.

The loss, as well as WVU’s strength-of-schedule, casts doubt over Grier’s Heisman potential. Easy wins over Tennessee, Youngstown State, Kansas State and Kansas cheapen Grier’s statistics. Next week’s meeting with Texas may prove to be his only chance to dispel any skepticism.

Kyler Murray, Oklahoma, QB

Baker Mayfield who? With Murray, the Sooners (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) haven’t skipped a beat. Army nearly pulled off a massive upset, and Oklahoma edged Iowa State in a tricky road game, but it has otherwise been smooth sailing with Murray at the controls.

The 5-foot-10-inch quarterback trails only Tagovailoa with a 227.8 mark in passer efficiency. Like Grier, he lacks a standout game against a high-quality opponent. 432 yards and 6 touchdowns against Baylor is eye-popping, but the Bears don’t strike as much fear into opponents as they have in recent memory.

Remove that rout, and Murray’s file is pedestrian compared to those ahead of him. The script can flip if he can out-shoot Grier when the two meet in Morgantown on Nov. 23.

Darrell Henderson, Memphis, RB

Obviously, the Heisman Trophy is an award dominated by quarterbacks. Only two running backs have won the award since 2000: Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry, both Alabama alumni.

Henderson is this season’s best chance for a non-quarterback to win the award, which lands him among the top five contenders. The junior running back has been a firecracker for Memphis this season, averaging a blistering 10.3 yards per carry to go along with 13 scores.

Wisconsin tailback Jonathan Taylor is a popular candidate as well, but Henderson outpaces him in yards, yards per carry and touchdowns on a 4-3 Tigers team. To top it off, Henderson — unlike Taylor and Clemson’s Travis Etienne — is a receiving option for Memphis, catching 11 passes for 191 yards.

Honorable Mention: Ed Oliver, Houston, DT

Any defensive player that has Heisman aspirations will hear the name Charles Woodson uttered in the same breath.

Oliver is the most imposing defender in the FBS. He has recorded 11.5 tackles for loss to go along with two sacks and 9 quarterback hurries.

Ndamukong Suh finished fourth in the Heisman voting in 2009, and the Cougar very may well end up in a similar spot.

Currently, Oliver is one of the most sought-after NFL prospects, but it would take a tremendous performance to become the first defensive player since Woodson, and the first interior lineman, to claim the award.

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